The Real Bidders

Well, its obvious my dream of making the 2012 Olympic Trials is out. I had more or less made that decision following NYC, even though I was very pleased with my results. I had decided that 2016 could be realistic goal, then some punk got stoned and went for a drive one afternoon. We will see how that develops.

In lieu of me going to Houston prepared to compete, I think it is time, just a couple days less than a year until the gun goes off, for us to look at who may actually get one of those three coveted spots at the trials. Will it be the usual suspects? Will an upstart, or an unknown training secluded in the woods and racing rarely show up and dominate. The chances of the later are slim, but its worth thinking about.

Over the next week, I will highlight the top 9 men who could vie for those three spots to head to London. The first three are all the guys that most would think are shoe ins. The next three will be the men who have begun to show flashes of brilliance, and could have a chance to sneak in. The final three will be three guys who may not be on anyone's radar. Guys who have been great in the past, or guys whose talent has not yet reached its full potential. Next week, we will look at the women in the same progression.

The Easy Bets: Meb Keflezighi, Ryan Hall, Dathan Riztenhien, in that order.
Some may ask, why Meb ahead of Hall? The answer is simple. Meb has been winning. In NYC in 2009, he shocked the world by not only dominating the ING New York City Marathon, but doing so by forcing a crushing pace on runner up, Robert Cheriuyot of Kenya, that he simply could not match. It was an amazing moment of triumph for Eritrian ex-pat that some had thought had his best days behind him at the conclusion of the 2008 Trials held in Central Park where he also suffered the loss his close friend Ryan Shay who past away at mile 5 of the race. Meb has consistently ran well, and healthily since that result. Finishing top ten in Boston following his New York Victory, and sixth in this past year's installment. He has an Olympic medal under his belt, and seems the most poised to break the tape in Houston.

Ryan Hall is on a journey of sorts right now. He is trying to find a training regimen that best suites him and his beliefs. According to all social media outlets, he appears to be enjoying it. It shocked the running world when Hall finished a disappointing 13th at the Philadelphia Distance Run this past fall. It shocked everyone even more when he decided to withdraw from the Chicago Marathon a few days later where Hall had planned on setting a new American mark at the distance.
Hall has run fast in the past, and there is no one who doubts his ability. He won impressively in 2008 at the trials, and has found himself on the podium in Boston also in 2009. That unfortunately was the last time we saw a flash of brilliance from Hall. He missed out on third in Boston in 2010 because he was goofing down Boylston, and has done nothing else since. His plan was to hit the track this past summer to regain some speed he thought he may have lost, but that never panned out. No one is really going to know where he is at until he gets out on the road and competes. Currently his plan is to return at the 2011 Boston Marathon, as he currently has no plans of prepping anywhere else.

Dathan Ritzenhein is barely hanging on to this third spot, and is going to find himself in deep trouble if any of the next three guys we explore have career days in Houston. Finishing second in 2008 at the Trials, many thought this young man was just blooming and would do great things. He preformed well in Beijing, even finishing one spot ahead of Hall on an oppressive day in Beijing. Since then, he simply has yet to have a breakthrough performance on the roads. He is doing amazing things on the track, and even briefly held the American 5k record in the summer of 2009. However, his only other success on the roads came at the World Half Marathon Championships where he placed third. At the marathon distance, his only success, and the only marathon since the Olympics was the London Marathon in 2009 where he ran a 2:10, after a long campaign declaring this was the time he would dip under 2:10. It was the first marathon after leaving his longtime coach to switch to American marathon legend Alberto Salazar. It simply did not happen. His performance this past November in New York was a disappointment as much was made about his unorthodox training with Salazar. He had been fighting injury for a long time leading into the race, and they tried various methods to keep him healthy, even changing his stride. He finished 8th with American Meb Keflezighi ahead of him. It was his first marathon since spring 2009, and we will see again this spring in London if he is beginning to be the marathoner we all thought he would be back when finished second at the trials and 9th at the subsequent Olympics.

Next installment-we will look at Brett Gotcher, Jorge Torres, and Jason Lehmkuhle.